TUNISIA

Economic Environment and Market Growth

Tunisia is showing modest but resilient economic growth in 2025, with most forecasts placing GDP growth between 1.2% and 1.9% for the year.

After stagnating in 2023, the economy recovered somewhat in 2024 and continues to benefit from stabilizing inflation (down to 5.6% as of April 2025), resilience in tourism and agriculture, and increased foreign direct investment (FDI). FDI rose by over 21% in 2024, particularly in manufacturing and energy.

However, private consumption and investment are expected to remain constrained due to new corporate taxes, tight liquidity, and only gradual improvements in the overall business environment.

The government is ambitious, aiming for over 3% growth, but most international agencies predict more conservative results.

Trade Framework and Regional Integration

Tunisia has a history of openness to international trade:

• It has a free trade area with the European Union dating back to 1998, primarily covering industrial products, and has progressively opened agricultural sectors.

• Negotiations for a more comprehensive Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) with the EU are currently stalled due to domestic opposition and concerns about competition and sovereignty.

Africa is a major focus:

• Tunisia is a member of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and targets increased engagement with sub-Saharan Africa. In 2024, trade with that region reached $550 million, with exports averaging nearly 10% annual growth over the last decade

• Ambitious initiatives in 2025 are underway to tap into an additional $518 million in export potential to sub-Saharan Africa, emphasizing industrial goods, agri-food, and new digital sectors.

• Tunisia’s location and agreements make it a potential hub for trade between Europe and Africa, with entrepreneurs targeting African integration as a growth lever.

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